or somewhere else, it's this. thanks for being part of all this. that's "hardball." thanks for being with us. "all in with chris hayes" starts right now. good evening from new york. i'm chris hayes. tonight on "all in," it's all-out war in the battle over the policy of racial profiling, known as stop and frisk. ben jealous of the naacp will be here in just a moment. also tonight, chris christie's wild weekend. on friday night the governor went hard right then he came back today, a monday morning moderate. we see what you're doing, chris christie. plus, if you're into secret government documents acknowledging stuff you sort of already maybe thought you knew, it's been a cool few days. last week we saw an acknowledgement that area 51 exist and this weekend an acknowledgement the cia really did orchestrate a coup in 1953. that is coming up. we begin tonight with stop and risk and racial profiling front and center and dominating

the national stage. despite or perhaps because of a multi-pr offensive waged in defense of the new york police department's policy. an offense of which began last week in response to a judge finding the nypd's stop and frisk violated the constitutional rights of people of color in new york. it intensified this weekend when nypd commissioner ray kelly who remains a top candidate for the head of the deparent defarmt of homeland security appeared on "meet the press" to defend his record. >> if a program like stop and frisk is abandoned, will people die? >> well, i think no question about it, violent crime will go up. again, this is not a program. this is something that's integral to policing. this happens throughout america. and any police jurisdiction. you have to do it. >> that appearance coincided with a predictably defensive editorial by mayor michael bloomberg in the "washington post" in which the mayor took turns defending stop and fricsk

and attacking the "washington post," itself, and others were criticizing the practice saying "the men and women who protect our city from criminals and terrorists deserve better than to have their integrity impugned in a courtroom or a newspaper especially when the facts are so clearly on their side." even today speaking at a press conference, touting the largest gun seizure in new york history, both men looked to play up the role of stop and frisk in getting guns off the street. >> wiretap conversations from this investigation show that one of the gun traffickers' biggest concerns was stop, question, frisk. >> campbell didn't want to risk it being found by new york police and is heard saying, "yeah. i'm in charlotte now. i can't take them to my house, to my side of town, in brownsville. we got, like, watchamacallit,

stop and frisk. >> mayor bloomberg and commissioner kelly doubling down and repeating the same statements again and again over stop and frisk is not having the intended ill packeimpact. sybrina made the connection that drives stop and frisk and the suspicion that ended up taking the life of trayvon martin. >> you have to give the police officers the right direction. you can't give people the authority whether a civilian or police officers the right to just stop somebody because of the color of their skin. >> back in new york city, front-runner in the mayoral raise, bill deblazio catapulted into first place because of his opposition to stop and frisk. this morning he unveiled his second ad on the topic. >> there are hundreds of thousands of new yorkers who never experienced stop and frisk. we talked to dante many times about the fact someday he will be stopped. parents all over the city are having that conversation with their kids. >> bill de blasio, to end the

stop and frisk era. >> bill de blasio is in an uncommon position for a white man having a son who will likely be stopped and frisked by the nypd. that's not true of michael bloomberg. a small, amazingly revealing moment, he, quote, conceded to "the new yorker," "if i had a son no was stopped, i might feel differently about it." joining me, ben jealous of the naacp. you heard ray kelly and michael bloomberg saying the big gun seizure was thanks partly to stop and frisk. why are you standing in the way of the effective gun control measure done in new york city to make the streets safer here? >> well, because quite frankly, effective police work focused on behavior is what gets guns off the street. stop and frisk doesn't. you know, in 2011, we had about

700,000 stop and frisks in the city. 680,000. and they pulled about 700 guns off the street. that means that 99.9% of the stop and frisks didn't yield any guns. if you want to get 700 guns off the street, well, you can do it through a big seizure like they did today or do it by an effective gun buyback program. and either way, you would be much more effective than the amount of hours it takes, if you can imagine, to do 700,000 stop and frisks. sometimes involving one cop, sometimes involving multiple cops. >> naacp is, of course, a national organization, oldest civil rights organization in the u.s. you have chapters everywhere. why are you so focused on new york city and stop and frisk? for folks who are watching who don't live in new york city, is this bigger than new york city? >> yes, this is the biggest racial profiling program in the country, biggest racial profiling k

profiling, maybe in the world. mayor bloomberg tried to get the mayor of san francisco to replicate his program. back then he was saying it was a program. no now he's trying to switch pr tactics. the mayor said thank you but no because it is just a phenomenal waste of resources and it's not effective. i mean, just break this down, chris. you kind of roll the tape back a bit. back in 2002, as kelly was taking over, he was very clear that he saw stop and frisk as dubious. he was very clear that actually he was against racial profiling. he'd come out of u.s. customs where he'd been very effective in increasing the productivity of searches by customs by ending racial profiling. he also said that you can't really take credit for drop in crime. that it was like taking credit for an eclipse of the moon. and he, of course, was referring to his predecessor, bill bratton. bill bratton, three-quarters of

the drop in homicides in new york city since its high point in the early 1990s -- >> happened during that period. >> yeah, happened during that period. >> let me ask you this. you raise the specter of ray kelly. ray kelly has been a very stalwart defender of his department's approach. believes genuinely he's saving people's lives. saving black and brown people's lives. he's been floated as possible head of dhs. given this policy and how associated with it, how stalwart defender, what do you think of the possibility of ray kelly being nominated to head dhs? >> i think that it is possible me get s nominated. i think if he gets nominated, he'll face the fiercest opposition from the civil rights community that any person put forward by president obama ever has. it will be vocal and outspoken because he has chosen to be vocal and outspoken about racial profiling. i'm not sure that, frankly, he really believes in this. at the very least, he was

against racial profiling before he was for if. he thought stop and frisk was dubious before he became its biggest champion. and -- >> well, he's definitely -- there's been a trajectory. there's been some movement. i'm willing to grant. ben jealous from the naacp. thank you so much. i appreciate it. >> thank you, chris. joining me now, ryan grim, washington bureau chief for the "washington post." ray kelly, head of new york city's police department, which is a big job, on sunday shows talking about stop and frisk as a central issue, and i'm just curious, what was your read of the political subtext of those appearances? >> you know, he's in a difficult position here because, you know, he's been floated now for a long time as a likely pick here. i know obama tends to leave people out there for a long time. it happened to susan rice. it happened to larry summers. and it's difficult. he's most associated with stop and frisk, but like ben jealous

said, he might not actually believe in it, but because he's so associated with it, he just has to come out and say it. i thought it was awfully revealing of kind of where the media lead is, the way gregory came out and said, will this plead to more people dying? he essentially was baiting ray kelly to say if you change this policy, you will have blood on your hands. he sort of took the bait but didn't exactly go there. he knows he's in a really tough spot because this is such a controversial issue nationally. it doesn't -- it doesn't wear as well nationally. if new york was the only city in the world, a lot of new yorkers often think it is, you'd think, oh, there was stop and frisk and crime came down so stop and frisk must have driven crime down. washington, we don't do this. you don't get asked for your papers, don't get stopped by cops when you're walking down the street in washington and crime has plummeted here. how do you explain that if you're ray kelly? >> what i think is fascinating,

i'm curious what you think of this from your perch in washington, is we have seen i think in the wake of trayvon martin's death and the acquittal of george zimmerman, the florida dream defenders down in florida, ray kelly, michael bloomberg, mayoral race and the judge's decision and the president's comments on this, this remarkable confluence, unlike any i've ever seen that put this issue, our criminal justice system, racial profiling within it. its disproportionate effect on black and brown people. right in the center of the national debate. is it being felt in washington where it has, in my opinion, for years been complete ll lly abse? >> yeah, it very much is and it really is for the first time in more than 20 years, because, you know, republicans ran effectively, you know, through the late '60s and '70s and into the '80s painting democrats as soft on crime. so they did the same thing they did with welfare reform. they said, we're not going to win this issue, let's just throw them under the bus. they got really tough on crime.

you know, joe biden was really kind of the leading drug warrior in the senate, both republican and democratic. and that kind of took the issue off the table and instead of there being a debate about it, it was who was tougher. who could get more, you know, who could rough more people up, who could be more in favor of more police on the streets who would give them more military-grade weapons -- >> longer sentences. >> exactly. >> this is the thing, this is the key truth, ryan, if an issue in washington is not being debated by democrats and republicans, it ceases to exist. no matter how much effect it has on lives of millions of americans. msnbc contributor ryan grim. thank you so much. >> thank you. our latest installment of "i see you politician who's trying to get away with something" features the governor of new jersey. chris christie. who spent the past few days probably hoping no one noticed what he did on friday night and everyone noticed what he did on monday morning. that's coming up. is your busine. so, if you're sleeping in your contact lenses, ask about the air optix® contacts so breathable they're approved for up to 30 nights of continuous wear.

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we had a big announcement today at msnbc. starting next monday, august 26th, the "the ed show" will move back to weeknights 5:00 p.m. eastern and "hardball" with chris matthews will air at 7:00 p.m. eastern. it will be great to have ed's voice back five days a week. up next, the latest conspiracy theory about barack obama and this one's not from fox news. but egyptian state television. stick around. but i don't love chlorine bleach. ...see this? this is what bleach did to my favorite dress... ...oh, but i don't see a dress. nope. exactly, because using bleach over time made it dingy so i threw it out. ...but now i use tide plus bleach with boost vivid and my whites stay whiter than with bleach. why don't you try on that invisible dress? oh, dan. [ female announcer ] reintroducing tide plus bleach alternative. for incredible whites without the harshness of chlorine bleach. [ jen ] that's my tide for brilliant whites. [ dan ] what's yours? humans. even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems.

namely, other humans. which is why at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? governor chris christie has tried to pull off a three-card money on new jersey voters. national primary voters and the national local press. check it out. today governor christie signed a-3371 into law, a bill that

bans licensed therapists from attempting so-called gay conversion therapy on minors. there are no cameras or photographers present, but the governor released a statement saying "the american psychological association has found efforts to change sexual orientation can pose critical health risks including but not limited to depression, substance abuse, social withdrawal, decreased self-esteem and suicidal thoughts. i believe exposing children to these health risks without clear evidence of benefits that outweigh serious risks is not appropriate. based upon this analysis, i signed this bill into law." now, that's a perfectly good thing to do. it shouldn't be a difficult decision since minors should not be subjected to something that the american psychological association is basically calling child abuse. but okay. that a boy, chris christie. this is, after all, what we might expect from a governor for a state that went for president obama by 17 points in the last election. this past friday, however, another chris christie was at work and that chris christie did something after 6:00 p.m. in the summer on a friday when all the

reporters had gone for the weekend. that chris christie vetoed a ban on a military sniper rifle, the barrett .50 caliber long-range rifle. here's the big military rifle. a weapon that has no plausible civilian use. it's more or less a war toy for amateur gun enthusiasts. the ban was one previously called for, wait for it, chris kr ri christie, himself, last april. he says the bill goes too far by prohibiting current owners from keeping their guns. it could be a group called pro-gun new hampshire, interesting state, rallied out of state gun supporters to push christie to veto the bill with 2016 in mind. this is the chris christie dance, and it's the one we'll get to see as he runs for re-election this year in a state with lots of liberals but positions himself with conservatives ahead of 2016, but keep this in mind, as soon as election day hits in november, if chris christie wins the second term, there will be no immediate need to strike such a balancing act. no new jersey liberals to be concerned about.

freaky friday will not be fol w followed by moderate monday. joining me now is barbara, democratic state senator, who's a candidate for governor of new jersey. senator, what do you think about these two bills? the first bill, the bill the governor signed today and the bill on friday he vetoed? >> well, you know, over the weekend the governor really, governor straight-talk really came clean, portrays himself as a social moderate. the only thing motivating him is his singular attempt to become the republican nominee for president of the united states. and so on friday, profiles in courage, he decides to veto gun bills that, as you said, he actually came out in support of. >> let me push back on that. if that's the case, the only thing that's motivating him is to become the nominee in 2016, why do we get today's bill banning this practice which is not going to curry favor with republican primary voters? >> he's trying to thread the needle. you'll see that when he -- it was very telling when he was questioned by reporters on this

bill when it fst came out. what do you think of gay conversion? his initial reaction, unfiltered, all thentic christie reaction, i need to know more about it. what more do you need to know, chris christie? gay and conversion, you put those two words together. it's about punishing our children, trying to convince our children they're not what they are. >> you're saying this was a calculation, political calculation. >> everything he does is a political calculation. >> he's a politician. you're a politician, too. >> it's true. his calculations are to the detriment of the people of new jersey. the one difference is he is driven by his singular ambition to become the nominee for president of the united states and the people of new jersey are going to be left behind. you can see it in everything he does. if you're watching, he vetoed women's health funding. he vetoed funding for plan the parenthood. it was a purely -- >> new jersey voters love him. his approval ratings are high. he's doing very well. the people, the political analysts, i don't like to predict anything, says he's cruising to re-election, that

you're not going to beat him. what's the problem? are new jersey voters getting hoodwinked? do they not realize what they're getting in chris christie? >> people in new jersey and in general don't focus on the election until after labor day traditionally. when you talk to people and they realize, when they know because of this governor, we have property taxes that have gone up 20%, we have one of the highest rates of unemployment in the nation. the highest -- >> extremely high. >> -- in the regioregion. under this governor, we're one of the worst states to do businesses. our rankings have actually dropped as a good place to do business. this is a governor who tries to portray himself as a social moderate but he's anything but. he's anti-marriage equality. anti-choice, anti-pay equity. he called it senseless bureaucracy. people are struggling in new jersey under the crushing burden of property taxes. 400,000 people are out of work. they don't have time to focuses on the election yet. >> okay. are you going to do e events with cory booker? >> actually we already have. cory and i have done a walking

tour of newark. cory has been a great validater. >> are new jersey democrats fighting hard enough against chris christie, or have they rolled over? >> i would say the democratic party is fractured in new jersey. there definitely is an ideological schism in the democratic party, and, yes, i think that that has been problematic. >> meaning they have not fought him hard enough? are they co-opted by christie? >> let me just say this. i have always done -- let's put it this way. i ran against the political bosses when i first ran for the assembly. people said i'd never win and i did. i did the same for the senate. yeah, i ruffled a few feathers, but i will always stand up for what i believe in. there are those who for them politics is transactional. that's not who i am. i will always stand up for the working people of new jersey. those are the people that this governor has left behind and his policies hurt him. >> josh barro, "business insider," a friend of mine, said you're not doing enough public events. are you campaigning hard enough for this? >> oh, my.

i was fund-raising in other states other than new jersey. have private events i go to that are not open to the press. if they're not oepen to the press, they're not listed on the public schedule. rest assured i'm out of the house from 8:00 a.m. to 10:00 or 11:00 at night. >> how is fund-raising coming? >> it's more difficult in new jersey than it is outside of new jersey, i will say that. >> do you think that's because people are scared of chris christie? >> all i can tell you is what people say to me. there are those that say to me they are afraid to contribute because he is retaliatory. that he will seek retribution. when chris christie was elect in 2010, i was first woman majority leader. republican senators used to talk to me. i remember seeing a republican senator come out of chris christie's office visibly shaken and perspiring and saying, you know, i shouldn't be treated this way. he really -- it's not about respect. it's about fear and loathing. >> democratic state senator barbara buono. strong words about new jersey governor chris krchristie. the cia releasing redacted

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here's a secret. you're not going to see this anywhere else. you want to know what's really driving the white house approach to dealing with the chaos unfolding in egypt right now? one theory being floated on egyptian state television this week by a former constitutional court justice involves president obama's brother being one of the coordinators and founders of a muslim brotherhood investment. the idea being that somehow the

president of the united states is through blood relations a secret muslim brotherhood supporter, an idea to adadapt, don't think it would clear editorial standards. people have been killed in an escalating conflict in between what are the country's ruling military forces and supporter mohamed morsi, the muslim brotherhood leader ousted from power last month. amid that, pretty much everyone engaged in this fight in egypt right now is convinced utterly that the united states is already secretly aiding their enemies. mark lynch of "foreign policy" took note of the historical level, writing, "longtime observers of egyptian rhetoric have been taken aback by the vitreal and sheer lunacy, the current wave of anti-american rhetoric. the rhetoric spans the political spectrum denouncing the united states is politically useful to every egyptian faction." it's easy to look at that kind of stuff and dismiss it, oh, it's the wacky conspiracy theories of the arab street, people in that region are add t

addicted to anti-americanism. we get news like we got today to remind us why conspiracy theories are so powerful. the cia declassified a document showing that 60 years ago they did, in fact, help eng neuroa coup. "a military coup that overthrew then-prime minister mosadeq was carried out under cia direction as an act of u.s. foreign policy." mosadeq, head of a democratically elected government, was nonetheless regarded by the u.s. as a sinister and dangerous character, subject to communist influence. here's a report from the -- i'm not making this up -- camel news caravan, a news program sponsored by camel cigarettes that aired on nbc just weeks before the cia engineered coup that ousted then-prime minister of iran. >> iran's mosadeq who creates

strength through -- received 99 9/10 of the vote. when mosadeq has a problem with the parliament, he goes to the people for a referendum to have it dissolved. there is no secret ballot. in fact, people supporting mosadeq vote in one place, people opposed vote in another. understandably, few oppose the skinny old man who controls the army and the police, and the supervisors at the opposition voting place have nothing to supervise. final returns in tehran, votes to dissolve the dually elected parliament. 67 votes against. mosad mosadeq has won with communist support. can he get rid of his dangerous new friends? >> that's what the run-up to the cia engineered iranian coup looked like on american television. we knew for years the u.s. played a role in that coup. six years after the fact we know officially from the cia, itself,

they decided to get rid of the head of the democratically elected government in iran. with a completely brutal police force at his disposal. so let's keep all of this in mind as we watch the crisis in egypt unfold. joining me now is nbc news contributor, author of the upcoming book "the ministry of guidance invites you not to stay: an american family in iran." iran and egypt, different language, different histories. broadly, in the region in the middle east, the u.s. has had this role for 50 of 60 years. as you watch the rhetoric out of egypt and the american involvement, given the iranian experience, how do you make sense of how people are viewing the americans as an actor in that region? >> it's what you said earlier about conspiracy theories gaining traction in the middle east or people thinking, wacky arabs or wacky persians believe

anything. conspiracy theories often come true at least from the perspective of iranians or arabs or turks or anyone else who's been following american involvement in the region. i mean, for years and years ever since my childhood, we knew the cia and the british, by the way, cia and the mi6 conspired to overthrow mosadeq. everyone knew this. there are books written about it. unless you were an american who was really interested in iran, you kind of didn't know about it or thought, oh, come on, that's a conspiracy theory, we wouldn't do that. this really just tells you, as a fact, now, that they did, they're admitting it. although the u.s. did kind of express some regret for some involvement. madeleine albright did. >> the president mentioned it in his cairo speech. >> mentioned it in his cairo speech. exactly. the thing that's really interesting is the relation between what happened in 1953 and the hostage crisis in 1979. which all americans know about. especially after the movie

"argo" young, more americans know about it. how the two things are completely related. and how that came to happen after, you know -- >> yet we know we don't know the, the average american does know about the hostage crisis. not necessarily what happened with mosadeq in 1953. there's something similar in egypt which is the prehistory of 30 years of government apart from mubarak is known by every single egyptian everywhere. >> exactly. >> we are now watching this little sliver of history play out and thinking why are they so mad at us? >> exactly. iran, we've had 35 years of no relations are iran. nuclear crisis. we have all the kinds of fights we have with iran. iran is the big enemy. and it's because of these two events. first the coup then '79, the hostage crisis. not necessarily the revolution, itself, but certainly the hostage crisis was related to the coup. the iranians were convinced the u.s. was going to do the same thing in 79 s 79.

it became a politicized event. the two are very related. the reason the americans want the iranians to apologize is the reason the iranians want the americans to apologize for the coup in the first place. if you look anywhere in the third world in the developing world where america has had an influence, whether south america, central america, look at vends wail lezuela, other co not just the middle east. there's a deep, deep suspicion of what -- >> sometimes the full picture of that is occluded to us in the u.s. nbc news contributor, thanks for your time. >> thank you. we'll be right back with #click3. of two aleve for six tylenol? what's the catch? there's no catch. you want me to give up my two aleve for six tylenol? no. for my knee pain, nothing beats my aleve. so, if you're sleeping in your contact lenses, what you wear to bed is your business. no. ask about the air optix® contacts so breathable they're approved for up to 30 nights of continuous wear.

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there is breaking news this evening and we are scrambling for details. but i can tell you at this moment is it appears the obama family has a new dog. first lady michelle obama first tweeted a photo of this new dog in and the white house followed up with video announcement. it's a girl dog. the name is sunny.

it's a portuguese water dog like the first dog, bo. we'll bring you more details as they become available. first i want to share three awesomist things on the internet today. we begin with, of course, quadrocopters. remote controlled super maneuverable high flying awesomeness. they're everywhere these days often with an hd videocamera attached bringing us new and spectacular views of places like niagara falls, falling high above the university of notre dame and australia. it's a matter of time before we saw our first quadrocopter deployed to get the elusively romantic low altitude fly-by shot. it takes a steady hand. oh, the memories that will last forever. the stitches, they'll come out in a week or two. the photographer who posted the video to youtube says no one was seriously injured. the bride and groom were good natured and insisted he post the

video for the world to see. the second awesomest thing on the internet today from buzz feed. it's the rally in support of mayor bob filner of san diego. we brought you the ongoing story of bob filner before. he's been charged by over a dozen women of committing all sorts of sexually harassing behavior. he's been accused of being a serial groper and took a leave of or senabsence to undergo the. there's even a group of people willing to publicly support the man. if you're wondering what kind of snappy things do you chant at a pro-bob filner rally? >> what do we want? >> due process. >> when do we want it? >> now. >> what do we want? >> due process. >> when do we want it? >> now. >> due process is good, but you know what's even better? personal testimonials. >> i have not been the recipient of sloppy kisses. and i have met mr. filner on many occasions.

there are others who are, but i've never had that opportunity. >> so there you have it. and finally, understand the third awesomest thing on the internet today, you need to go all the way back to february 2004 when season 2, episode 5 of the shapell show aired on "comedy central." charlie murphy fotold the hollywood story about the time he and his crew played basketball with prince and the revolution. >> never judge a book by its cover. >> play ball. >> he was crossing. he was getting rebounds like charles barkley. shoot it. >> oh, prince the revolution won the game and inexplicably brought murphy and his crew back inside for pancake breakfast. fast forward nine years and the actual artist, prince, using the

handle @thirdeye yngirl joined twitter. friday he nearly broke the internet when he tweeted "game blouses" along with a youtube link to the new single "breakfast can wait." dave chapelle as prince holding a tray of pancakes. here's part of the song. ♪ i apt tin't trying to make yo blush but i wanted to tell you i think you're great ♪ ♪ i need another taste ♪ breakfast can wait >> that's not a joke. that's the actual album cover, actual song. callback nine years in the making. download the song at thi thirditunes.com. find all the links for tonight's #click3 on our website, allinwithchris.com. we'll be right back. it steals your memories. your independence. ensures support, a breakthrough. and sooner than you'd like.

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each second that ticks by, every day that passes puts us further from the memory of 2012 and one day closer toward the midterms and one day closer to the beginning of the 2016 republican presidential primary. which means as i speak to you, as the moments flutter by, the incentives to slowly shifting so your average republican politician, concerned chiefly with his or her political future, cannot help but conclude the smart logical rational thing to do is to pander by any means necessary to the increasingly self-lathering conservative base. what the base wants is what they already want. death to obama care. no matter how many people have to politely explain to them that ship has sailed, no matter how many republican party elites and donors and others warn them that threatening a shutdown or a default over defunding obama care will be an unmitigated disaster politically, not to mention for millions of people, though really who cares about them. they want it. the loudest voices they listen to want it. so today we have the heritage foundation.

unveiling its nine-city tour intended to drum up support for defunding the president's signature piece of legislation. more importantly, there's an internet meme. the right wing institution launching a stop obama care instagram campaign. entrants include a fore lorn looking darrell issa holding up a blank sign and grumpy cat. this gun toting image from the movie "ripd." rest in peace department. we had to google it. if you didn't catch it in the theaters, you're not alone. it was the summer's biggest box office flops. a former operative say his own medical struggles changed his views on the legislation. clint murphy who worked on john mccain's 2008 campaign battled cancer and other issues including sleep apnea. those experiences prompted him to turn from obama care adversary to supporter. when you say you're against it, you're saying you don't want people like me to have health insurance. of course, here's the rub. clint murphy isn't going to get the hearing with the relatively small committed group of dead

enders who the ted cruzses of the world need to cultivate support with to be plausible 2016 gop nominees, and the defund obama care train rolls on faster and faster gathering speed with every passing moment, headed toward a collision with political reality and millions of sick and anxious people. joining me now is a former member of mitt romney's health care policy advisory group. author of the blog on health care and entitlement reform. i want to show you what ron paul said about the government shutdown. it was indicative of this problem to me. he basically, here's what fox news saying, it's a bad idea, we'll do it anyway. check it out. >> i don't think shutting down the government is a good idea, but i do think that we were elected, conservatives were elected to try to stop this overreach, this government takeover of health care. if we do nothing, we're just saying to the president, hey, you get your way. >> is there any way, you are in this lonely class of people. conservative wonks. there's like a little bit of -- >> explainers we might call them. >> you're just in this little world and you do your work with

intellectual integrity, you believe what you believe in. you know the literature. but the avik roys of the world, the republican base is not reading it. they're not listening to whatever you're saying, here's way to fit obama care so it looks conservative and gets people the health care their want. they want to burn it to the ground. is there any way to convince them otherwise? >> i think that even mike lee and ted cruz and those guys, why are they pursuing the shutdown strategy? they said it's because once the subsidies for obama care start, then there's no turning back. jim demint had an op-ped in the "wall street journal" and said we're reaching the point of no return with obama care. if we held them to those statements -- >> here's what i don't understand about that. if the program is as much a disaster as people on the right are warning it will be, then i don't understand why letting it to actually be implemented won't be self-refuting. right? even if the subsidies kim y ies and the whole thing is poorly engineered and poorly executed

as everyone on the right is telling me it's going to be, it will be a big policy disaster and the president is going to take a hit and the democratic party will, and they'll deserve to if it doesn't work for people. why not let that go forward? >> some people have that view that that's what should happen. of course a law can be rewarding for some groups and punishing for some. it's not uniform in its effects. the concern of a lot of people on the right, there will be people who benefit. the people who benefit from the insurance subsidies in particular. the people not qualified for the subsidies, despite the law's efforts to do otherwise, those are the people who are going to be concerned and it will be a train wreck for them. >> but if a train wreck for them, like, if it is a train wreck for them, if you want to have a political cage match between two kinds of voters, one is someone who is making just above poverty, working class person who qualifies for a subsidy. one of them is a person with a lot more money. we saw their premiums jacked. let me tell you who's going to win the political cage fight. if the concern is about the politics of this, it's going to

be the upper middle class person who saw their premium jacked who's going to make their representative scream bloody murder in washington, d.c. this isn't about policy, right? it's about destroying the president or it's about taking a chunk of his hide out or it's about just saying across this line, you shall not pass. as opposed to -- >> it's definitely not that. there is a view. the view among the base, i think the typical view of a base voter for the republicans is we had a free market health care system before obama care was passed. obama care was passed. it was a government takeover of the health care system. that's what we've got to stop. if we don't, we've lost the war against big government. >> i must interject neither of those things are true. we did not have -- >> that's the -- >> that is what they're reflecting. >> that's exactly the thing. what i try to do when i'm the polite explainer is to say we actually had a heavily government-involved system to begin with, since at least 1965, possibly before, arguably before. the affordable care act is an

incremental advance of that but not the government takeover, you know, if you can't look at it in isolation, you have to look at this whole, you know -- >> what do people say to you when you say that? do you get traction as being a polite explainer? >> they are persuaded, but, you know, i'm doing so in relatively small audiences, not to hundreds of millions of people. right? i think when you show the data, the data is very clear. if you look, for example, government spending on health care in the united states, it's the fourth highest in the developed world. fourth highest in the world, therefore. there's only three countries in the developed world that spend more in terms of public spending per capita on health care in the united states. that's in 2010, before the -- >> before the affordable care act. >> when i exflan, people start to scratch their heads, you're on to something. >> i want to talk about what is the path from talking to a small amount of people to millions of people for the conservative wonk avik roys of the world, and wonk ezra klein is going to join me and we're going to script to you a strategy to get you out of this little box. right when we come back.

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all right. joining me now, the editor of the one and only wonk blog at the "washington post," ezra klein. ezra, i wanted you to respond to avik. as someone who follows this incredibly closely, is there enough time to bridge the gap between perception and reality of what the affordable care act is and represents in american politics? in time to avert something disastrous and catastrophic this fall when possibly republicans try to force some kind of shutdown? >> i question your premise, sir. >> please. >> i don't think bridging the gap matters that much. number one, two the republican shutdown threat, it's not going to happen. they don't have the support in house. the elders in senate, rational minds in the senate clearly seem to be -- i'd be very surprised.

doesn't mean it can't happen. if i was placing nimy bet, i'd t a probability on the republican-led shutdown. maybe this prediction will have egg on my face in a couple months, but there it is. the secondary part is about bridging this sort of broad perceptual gap. often contributes to, as much as he's a good guy and wonk, i think it would be fair to say he emphasizes the negative and doesn't always give a balanced portrayal of the law. in a broad sense, i don't think this political conversation over the law matters very much. come october and come months after that, we are going to see the actual law begin, and most people will never interface with something called obama care. in california, they will see this thing called covered california. in washington state it will be i think the washington health connector or something. it will either work for them or be affordable for them or won't be. it won't be about the political conversation. >> that i somewhat agree with which was the point i was trying to make it avik. let. play out. if it's as bad as you say it is,

won't it be bad for the president? i do think there is a way that kind of narratives of disaster do get caught up into the media universe, and ezra, particularly because so few people interface with actually the thing, itself, is does seem to me it would be possible that a media narrative of disaster does get created even embedded by people who actively want to see the thing fail to point you do create political, real political backlash that then does have policy consequences because people then in washington are trying to fix something that isn't actually broken. >> i think one thing to bring up there is when you pass a law on party lines, that tension, that dynamic is more present. if there's -- >> they could have passed it with republican votes, everyone would have loved it. >> we can look at 2009 another time. i think from an objective from a political science standpoint, that's the challenge. right? when you have one party that is opposed to the law and didn't support it to begin with, and has no stake in its success, and one part does --

>> can i say this? except for the stake of the human beings who have -- when you go out trying to get something not to work. >> ezra, you at some point have to eventually pass laws. yes, it's true. it would have been a good idea for the party that was if power in 2009 to have tried to come to some compromise. i mean, one of the things may maybe could have done is to base their health care plan off the health care passed by a prominent presidential candidate. this gets a little ridiculous. the republicans refuse to come to the table to deal with a plan, they themselves proposed earlier. clearly a set of republican ideas were involved in them, though. then they say, well, this was a partisan plan you passed, so we can't support it. look, it is completely the case, chris, you could have a media narrative. in fact, i almost assure you you will have a set of media narratives based off very real implementation. my guess is the affordable care act will not be a big boone and will be a net negative for democrats in 2014.

just as happened in medicare part "d," a very tough bill and rollout in its first year, as the bill gets on its feet, it begins delivering a fair amount of benefits. >> let me make a quick point here. >> actually become very important because it does become essentially impossible to repeal, although it doesn't become impossible to reform or improve. >> the morning consult did a poll, where they showed if you ask people, 1,000 likely voters, what's the biggest problem with the health care system in america? 75% it was the cost of insurance. 11% said it was the uninsured. so will the affordable care act make insurance less expensive? >> it's a big outstanding question. the other thing about that, if people don't care about the uninsured, there are still tens of millions of people living through absolutely unnecessary misery and i care about them and think a decent social contract and decent society should care abou